What is your opinion on the hobby's status?

[Reef Pilot]

Originally Posted by Colby Bay

The problem with hobbiest surplus frags is that in general they are the left overs. This is not always the case but my experience is as follows. The hobbiest trades his good stuff to friends or other hobbiests for other good stuff that he/she wants. Or he/she sells the good corals on forums, social media, frag swaps etc. Then they go to the LFS with the stuff they couldn't sell or trade to anyone else. In general it is either not nice or just not desirable because everyone in that area that wanted it already has it. So hobbiest grown stuff can be a hard sell for the LFS.

Where as a fresh shipment will have new colors or varieties that people in the area may not have yet.

Yes, I agree what the hobbyist sells to the LFS is generally the left overs. However, it is priced accordingly (to the seller), and with the the higher LFS traffic, they still seem to sell through pretty quickly. But the LFS also gains more business from the seller (corals sold as credit), and I for one will go out of my way to support an LFS (even if they are more expensive) that buys frags from me.

Some fresh shipments may have good colors, for a while, but in general I have found the hobbyist corals to be the most healthy (of course you need to buy from a reputable seller) and usually take off in the new tank right away. I have seen a lot of brown SPS sitting in LFS shops that were good size, but obviously not happy. I don't think these came from local hobbyists.

Also I cringe when I watch an LFS pop in a batch of new frags without dipping. I saw them do it with mine. I always dip (and usually QT as well) any new corals, no matter who I got them from. So far I have never had a problem, but that (AEFW, etc) is always my biggest fear.

I agree with you about the new varieties, though. Hobbyists (incl myself) are not so quick to offer up their slow growing designer corals. So if I was an LFS, that is what I would be importing.

[lastlight]

Originally Posted by gobytron

The trend, in my experience over the last 15 years, has been on the decline.

I can't imagine were more than 10 or 15 years away from only being able to stock captive bred or cultured livestock and paying an incredible premium just for that.

slection is getting worse and prices are going up.

all but the best run lfs can't seem to stay in business.

I'm just enjoying it while I can...

I'm not trying to be overly negative but I will say that this is sort of my fear and the vibe I get surrounding this hobby as well. Maybe it's all the Hawaii stuff but my impression is that the wheels are in motion to severely restrict what we can get going down the road. Maybe it's the forum slowdown (at least in my head) that casts this feeling over me. I sure hope we continue to have the ability to get a variety of livestock. No doubt it's going to continue to get more expensive.

[saltcreep]

Great topic. I don't have time to respond fully, but I will later. Suffice it to say, my opinion is that this hobby has been on the decline for a number of years, with 2008-2009 being probably the plateau.

There are a number of reasons (which I will expand on), but there are many including economic and environmental. The latter can't be discounted as the pressure will mount on the industry. Yes, the impact can be perceived as minimal, but from the overall perspective of habitat protection, I don't feel that the long term prospect for wild harvested livestock is all that good.

[sphelps]

While it's not a sustainable hobby it's not on the decline either. The hobby is growing, price increases are actually proof of that. As the hobby expands as does the the business that supports it. Many might be inclined to think as competition grows prices will come down but not when sustainability is low, ultimately there's limited supply thus growing demand drives prices up among other reasons already mentioned. Hardware however is different, the equipment market continues to grow with new products and innovations resulting in more supply and lower prices.

If people are noticing a resent decline consider the combination of summer months approaching and the effects of the economy from the energy sector. Things will definitely be slowing down as a result but it's a typical and a temporary decline, not really a sign of things to come.

I also shake my head every time I hear comments relating to the environmental impact and that the hobby's effect is minimal. First off if there are larger forces at play such as pollution, commercial fishing, deforestation and so forth then the effect this hobby plays is more substantial, not less. If reefs are already threatened then the addition of another threat has greater impact. Second if you've ever been around your LFS at shipment day then you've seen the countless boxes of wild caught specimens which arrive regularly. If you consider the thousands of retail locations around the world you'd be unwise to suggest this has little impact on the sensitive ecosystem supporting this business. I'm not suggesting everyone should quit the hobby, feel bad, or even give a flying ... But don't sit on a high horse cursing those larger forces which offer far greater benefit to society than your precious glass box of self-indulgence.

[jorjef]

Originally Posted by sphelps

Second if you've ever been around your LFS at shipment day then you've seen the countless boxes of wild caught specimens which arrive regularly. If you consider the thousands of retail locations around the world you'd be unwise to suggest this has little impact on the sensitive ecosystem supporting this business.

This comment I believe supports why we are seeing a lot of livestock way smaller then in the past...Few example Fungi plates, Aussie scolly's, some species of fish hippo, yellow tangs, blue green chromis, I saw a six line that I swear was a 1/2" long , maybe even clams.

If the collectors don't have the means or legally can't reach out to new collecting sites I would suggest due to demand the area they have historically collected from doesn't have time to produce the same sizes say... fungi or scollys we were use to in the past... Just a theory.

[saltcreep]

Originally Posted by sphelps

While it's not a sustainable hobby it's not on the decline either. The hobby is growing, price increases are actually proof of that.

I don't think that there is a direct correlation in prices and the strength of the hobby. I would argue the opposite in that as product becomes more expensive, it changes consumers' purchasing habits. There has also been a shift towards smaller tanks which will also impact the sales of livestock as less is required to fill a tank.

Yes this business is seasonal...that hasn't changed nor will it ever. My timeline horizon goes back years and in my opinion the hobby (from a business case) plateaued in 2008-2009. This also coincides with the downturn in the economy, from which I don't believe it has recovered despite what the government would tell you.

The internet has had an enormous affect on the industry and is effecting the smaller brick and mortar stores more than anything else. This will continue to suppress retail prices as, for the most part, an online retailer can only garner market share by offering cheap prices. These prices then are a gauge for the balance of the industry such as brick and mortar.

Those that are doing marines "half way" are getting crushed. This business approach no longer works. You have to go all in or don't bother. The number of stores that have closed or removed marines from their stores is staggering. Others still continue to wonder if it is worth carrying them. There are few that are doing well, but what I see overall is a great deal of consolidation where there are fewer players controlling a greater share of the market.

Originally Posted by Myka

Our economy is challenged right now because of the strength of the US dollar right now. This too will change.

That may also not be a true indicator of the hobby. My experience is that the hobby has been stronger even when the exchange was as high as $1.60+ CAD-USD.

As far as the environmental side of the issue, there are still huge issues facing the industry be it collection related or outside factors like climate change and pollution.

There will always be issues from a collection side as many of the countries that product is exported from do not have strong environmental standards. On the direct collection side, there are few areas with strong stock management plans. This will allow the over collection of fish on an ongoing basis. It is already being seen in the availability of some fish from certain countries. Collectors are having to travel further and further to find collection areas. Not to mention, there are still areas where cyanide use (or other alternative) is alive and well, despite what many would like to say.

Other factors such as pollution, deforestation, etc, all have a far greater impact than this hobby. But...the fact of the matter is that it is 100% impossible to justify removing fish from the world's reefs for our own amusement. This is something the industry struggles with greatly from an optics point of view. Critics will always point to this and say it's senseless.

The far greatest issue will be climate change and everything that comes with it. As the effects become greater and greater, the more pressure will be put on the reefs for conservation. There are vast areas now that are being protected. My opinion is that it is a matter of time before there are more and more areas that are protected thus reducing the availability of wild caught livestock. As everyone is aware, Hawaii is a great example of this.

So where do I see things going. I don't have a timeframe, but I wouldn't be surprised if the wild collection of coral for the trade is banned. There is enough cultured product on the market where it can be pointed that wild collection is not required. Fish, well, who knows other than to say that I can see more pressure on the fair collection and protection of the reefs. All to say it will squeeze the availability of product. Will culturing of fish fill the void, probably not for the average consumer.

I also see more consolidation in the industry. The trend will continue where more stores will continue to fall or not bother with marines.

But what do I know...it will be interesting to watch.

[Scythanith]

The slow growing designer coral frags cost the retailer nearly as much as the customer, so the markup on those is even more appalling lol! It's all about having that relationship with your LFS that you can take premo stuff to them and they will treat you right That way everyone can be happy. Just not the customer that expects to get it for cheap since it came out of some locals tank, doesn't work that way.

[Bayside Corals]

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[Animal-Chin]

Ya, thats all makes sense Colby Bay, for sure. As soon as Scoly's got popular a red and green one went from $50 to $150. Supply and Demand, its as old as time...

[gobytron]

Almost everything posted here is from a business perspective.

Does nobody kind of see the writing on the wall for this hobby from an environmental sustainability standpoint?

We play a fairly major role in the destruction or depletion of ocean ecosystems.

Something is going to give sooner than later.