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Originally Posted by sphelps
While it's not a sustainable hobby it's not on the decline either. The hobby is growing, price increases are actually proof of that.
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I don't think that there is a direct correlation in prices and the strength of the hobby. I would argue the opposite in that as product becomes more expensive, it changes consumers' purchasing habits. There has also been a shift towards smaller tanks which will also impact the sales of livestock as less is required to fill a tank.
Yes this business is seasonal...that hasn't changed nor will it ever. My timeline horizon goes back years and in my opinion the hobby (from a business case) plateaued in 2008-2009. This also coincides with the downturn in the economy, from which I don't believe it has recovered despite what the government would tell you.
The internet has had an enormous affect on the industry and is effecting the smaller brick and mortar stores more than anything else. This will continue to suppress retail prices as, for the most part, an online retailer can only garner market share by offering cheap prices. These prices then are a gauge for the balance of the industry such as brick and mortar.
Those that are doing marines "half way" are getting crushed. This business approach no longer works. You have to go all in or don't bother. The number of stores that have closed or removed marines from their stores is staggering. Others still continue to wonder if it is worth carrying them. There are few that are doing well, but what I see overall is a great deal of consolidation where there are fewer players controlling a greater share of the market.
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Originally Posted by Myka
Our economy is challenged right now because of the strength of the US dollar right now. This too will change.
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That may also not be a true indicator of the hobby. My experience is that the hobby has been stronger even when the exchange was as high as $1.60+ CAD-USD.
As far as the environmental side of the issue, there are still huge issues facing the industry be it collection related or outside factors like climate change and pollution.
There will always be issues from a collection side as many of the countries that product is exported from do not have strong environmental standards. On the direct collection side, there are few areas with strong stock management plans. This will allow the over collection of fish on an ongoing basis. It is already being seen in the availability of some fish from certain countries. Collectors are having to travel further and further to find collection areas. Not to mention, there are still areas where cyanide use (or other alternative) is alive and well, despite what many would like to say.
Other factors such as pollution, deforestation, etc, all have a far greater impact than this hobby. But...the fact of the matter is that it is 100% impossible to justify removing fish from the world's reefs for our own amusement. This is something the industry struggles with greatly from an optics point of view. Critics will always point to this and say it's senseless.
The far greatest issue will be climate change and everything that comes with it. As the effects become greater and greater, the more pressure will be put on the reefs for conservation. There are vast areas now that are being protected. My opinion is that it is a matter of time before there are more and more areas that are protected thus reducing the availability of wild caught livestock. As everyone is aware, Hawaii is a great example of this.
So where do I see things going. I don't have a timeframe, but I wouldn't be surprised if the wild collection of coral for the trade is banned. There is enough cultured product on the market where it can be pointed that wild collection is not required. Fish, well, who knows other than to say that I can see more pressure on the fair collection and protection of the reefs. All to say it will squeeze the availability of product. Will culturing of fish fill the void, probably not for the average consumer.
I also see more consolidation in the industry. The trend will continue where more stores will continue to fall or not bother with marines.
But what do I know...it will be interesting to watch.