Well you make a few assumptions in your financial analysis. I do believe 10 years is a reasonable lifespan even though you disagree. Since nobody has had a decent LED fixture for 10 years yet we can't really tell. So let's look at the 6 year point as an example. The costs you laid out for the LEDs was $2000 purchase price with $110 per year in running costs for a total after 6 years of $2660. The MH was $1000 to purchase + $220 per year in electricity and $140 per year in bulbs for a total of $3160. That is also assuming you don't need to buy and run a chiller which will add a fair bit to the MH costs.
You have also made the assumption that in 6 years if the LEDs need replacing then a fixture will again be $2000 but the costs are likely to come down dramatically by then and you will get a comparable setup for far less money. But you might also be able to simply replace the LEDs by that point and the costs for comparable emitters would likely be less than $200 for say 80 LEDs by that time. There is a big push to incorporate LED technology into mainstream lighting so in 6 years the economies of scale will bring the prices way down. I can already buy generic 3W LEDs with maybe 70% the performance of Crees for $1.50 each (I have some I plan to test soon). In 6 years they will exceed the performance of the current Cree LEDs at or below that cost. You are also assuming that users of MH or florescent lighting use the same fixtures indefinitely. I venture that most people in this hobby change their fixtures at least every 5 or 6 years. Of course some won't and you will find the outliers who have been using the same MH setup for 10 or 15 years but they would be the exception rather than the rule.
I also think it is a false to assume that repairing an LED fixture is more difficult or costly than repairing a faulty MH or T5 fixture. It may or may not be depending on what fails. Replacing an LED is not any more difficult then replacing an end cap or moonlight and replacing a driver should not be any harder then replacing a ballast. If you would feel comfortable repairing a MH or T5 fixture you should be able to do the same with an LED one. If you aren't comfortable then it has to go out for repairs no matter what lighting technology it uses. And MH and florescent ballasts aren't cheap to replace and they do fail over time. So we should leave the failure/repair estimates out of the analysis because there are so many variables there.
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