The future

[Jack]

I dunno if this belongs in the Lounge or what but I'm just sparking some conversation.

With the advancements in technology and knowlege over the past years what do people see in the future equipment-wise and livestock, or anything else for that matter?

Seems like there is an ebb and flow of trends, ie Iwasaki's, DSB, ect.

[Quinn]

Great topic Jack.

I think any field has these fads - we're all looking for a one-shot, one-size-fits-all solution to the obstacles we face in our hobbies, work and life in general. In reefing it's the trends you've noted, in business it was e-commerce, in nutrition it's the Atkins diet. We're looking for this one paradigm shift that will change the way we do something. I think the problem we have, however, is that we have these theorists, many of them doctors like Atkins and Shimek, who come along with this idea, and develop a test, and find that their procedure works, and then release it, at which point it is bastardized to high hell and becomes another cliche for that social group.

The truth is (OK, I know this is a cliche as well) there are no simple solutions to complex questions. As noted, these great ideas that could lead to a partial reorientation of a discipline are often simply misconstrued by the greater masses, at which point they become useless. I don't know how well Shimek tested his DSB theory, but let's pretend his tests were stringent and objective and concluded that, by his methods, DSBs work. The average hobbyist with a DSB does not follow these instructions, and therefore they fail to work. Suddenly DSBs stop working, and e-commerce stops working, and we have DSB crashes, and the dot.com crash of 1999.

What needs to happen is everyone needs to be on the same level. This is fine for the sciences that attract a select few. When Einstein came up with the theory of relativity, it blew Newtonian physics out of the water and all the physicists who were worth their salt tossed out the old ideas and got with the new. In a hobby like reefing, few of us are educated enough to understand the theory behind DSBs and therefore we immediately fall away from what Shimek believes is a scientific level of reasoning, and therefore the paradigm becomes useless.

For true change to occur, everyone must remain in alignment through the chance. My criminology professor speaks in this way about crime control and the judicial system in Canada*. Someone gets a great idea, and we launch a space ship containing these new ideas towards the planet True Change. But everytime, the people behind the ship fail to follow the instructions and fail to include enough fuel, so the ship crashes back to Earth. Everytime someone in the hobby comes up with a new theory, it starts off nicely, but suddenly falls apart, crashes back down and we all trample it in the stampede to the next "big" thing.

In short, the hobbyist must change before the hobby itself can change.

* For those of you familiar with criminology, the paradigm shift he is speaking of is the "community policing" method.

[BCOrchidGuy]

I think one thing we'll see is a departure from trendy stuff, as we learn more we'll see stuff that was thought to be great IE undergravel filters etc go away. I also believe we'll see more additives come out that promise to revolutionize aquarium care, reducing maintenance time etc.
I think we'll see some other lighting solutions come along as well, maybe colour correct halogen lights, etc...
Good idea for a thread Jack.

Doug

[Quinn]

LED lights sound pretty cool. I think lights are a bit of an exception because the lights used in reefing are developed for a far wider group of consumers than just reefers, for their colour, intensity and efficiency. Whereas essentially no one but reefers have a use for an inproved method of filtering saltwater filled with organic waste.

[zulu_principle]

Let me first say what I know then what I think.

The first thing I know for fact is that the dot.com crash was not about e-commerce not working. The market is based on the force of supply and demand and unfortunately the crash was just that simple, more sellers than buyers. Further to that comes my opinion is that in the extreme people make decisions for two reasons in the stock market, fear and greed. The center of that universe for the capital markets is one thing, interest rates. This I can say with the utmost confidence. Teevee, if you would like to debate this I would be more than happy, but rest assured you will be well over your head on this one.

Anyways on what I believe is the future:

DSB, NSB, LR, etc. In the future someone will develop a better or more efficient way of converting nitrites to nitrates. This is will help us achieve a system which handles the waste in a closed system like it is handled in the ocean.

Lighting, lets be serious, at 120 or 240 volts we will never be able to duplicate the lighting from the sun, so our replication of this although entertaining will never suffice the real thing. The more light the more heat generated, therefor most people will have a chiller.

Protein Skimming, it will be replaced by something in the future that purifies the synethtic salt mix faster and more efficient than ever before.

Rich Man Toys - calcium reactors, pH monitors, etc. etc. They will always be around, not because we are looking for the quick fix but because we are looking for the lastest and greatest toy.

Fish & Coral Collection - I believe it is almost impossible to regulate, especially by itself an industry where people are selling fish for a small percentage of what they retail for. The cost as most people know is the shipping not the capture and sale of the fish. Unless a governmental agency steps in and determines that penalities should exist for unethical fish capture methods nothing will change on this front. The consumer overall will not buy Tank Raised species at a sufficient premium to make that an attractive deployment of the scarce resource, CAPITAL.


Anyways, thats my take on the future.



Wendell



On to the topicGreat topic Jack.

I think any field has these fads - we're all looking for a one-shot, one-size-fits-all solution to the obstacles we face in our hobbies, work and life in general. In reefing it's the trends you've noted, in business it was e-commerce, in nutrition it's the Atkins diet. We're looking for this one paradigm shift that will change the way we do something. I think the problem we have, however, is that we have these theorists, many of them doctors like Atkins and Shimek, who come along with this idea, and develop a test, and find that their procedure works, and then release it, at which point it is bastardized to high hell and becomes another cliche for that social group.

The truth is (OK, I know this is a cliche as well) there are no simple solutions to complex questions. As noted, these great ideas that could lead to a partial reorientation of a discipline are often simply misconstrued by the greater masses, at which point they become useless. I don't know how well Shimek tested his DSB theory, but let's pretend his tests were stringent and objective and concluded that, by his methods, DSBs work. The average hobbyist with a DSB does not follow these instructions, and therefore they fail to work. Suddenly DSBs stop working, and e-commerce stops working, and we have DSB crashes, and the dot.com crash of 1999.

What needs to happen is everyone needs to be on the same level. This is fine for the sciences that attract a select few. When Einstein came up with the theory of relativity, it blew Newtonian physics out of the water and all the physicists who were worth their salt tossed out the old ideas and got with the new. In a hobby like reefing, few of us are educated enough to understand the theory behind DSBs and therefore we immediately fall away from what Shimek believes is a scientific level of reasoning, and therefore the paradigm becomes useless.

For true change to occur, everyone must remain in alignment through the chance. My criminology professor speaks in this way about crime control and the judicial system in Canada*. Someone gets a great idea, and we launch a space ship containing these new ideas towards the planet True Change. But everytime, the people behind the ship fail to follow the instructions and fail to include enough fuel, so the ship crashes back to Earth. Everytime someone in the hobby comes up with a new theory, it starts off nicely, but suddenly falls apart, crashes back down and we all trample it in the stampede to the next "big" thing.

In short, the hobbyist must change before the hobby itself can change.

* For those of you familiar with criminology, the paradigm shift he is speaking of is the "community policing" method.

[Samw]

I agree that ECommerce is not a fad and that the dot com crash has more to do with a market that got way ahead of itself. I do believe that ECommerce has continued to increase year over year and there are estimates that by 2008, 10% of all retail business transactions will be online.

http://www.forrester.com/ER/Press/Release/0%2C1769%2C823%2C00.html

As for future gadgets, I would predict that wireless water quality monitors will be more popular (wireless thermometers, PH meters, etc.). I think protein skimming is here to stay for a long time though. I haven't come across any new technologies yet that could remove nutrients out of the water like a skimmer can, and the aeration it provides is critical. I've seen how useless a powerfilter is for oxygenation in my Eclipse 6. It would be difficult for me to keep the same kind of tank that I have at home now without a skimmer.

I don't really see a whole lot of new innovation coming out. Maybe synthetic salt mixes will improve. I think we're hitting a plateau. However, I see the hobby as a whole will become less expensive and I see more hobbiests will be getting in as a result. I see more fish will be aquacultured such as clowns and gobies but many others such as tangs, batfish, angels, etc will continue to be problematic to breed and raise in captivity (like they've been trying for decades to breed and raise Tuna without significant success).

[UnderWorldAquatics]

new stuff to look for:
Bluetooth wireless water quality moniters, led lighting with solar/lunar cycles, small cost effective heat exchangers for heating and cooling, dialisys filtration, more automation, and hopefully wild livestock collection will be regulated in a controlable way(like hunting, if you poach, you go to jail and or get huge fines)
there will always be trends, they usually get sorted out in a couple years

[Seth]

I'm looking forwards to LED lighting (not just moonlighting) which has already started to develop in Japan. They already have some products out in the market.

Cheaper and maybe better metal halide lights. I wish I could just buy metal halide clip on lights to save space. Again they have that in Japan already.

Better looking aquarium tanks and stands would be nice too but that's not really "the future".

Cheaper monitoring tools and automation would be nice. I'm always afraid of a fire or flood at home.

[monza]

Sort of a side bar.
I was in a LED wholesale/sign maker place a while back, pretty cool stuff.
Does anyone know of the specific LED that mimics moonlight? Or is it just a blue LED?

Sorry for the high jack of the topic, great topic.

Dave

[Quinn]

I apologize for any indication that I felt that e-commerce was a fad. Increasing communication over the last decade, century, millenium has had a fundamental effect on trade, and the "virtual marketplace" is the latest incarnation of this. Certainly e-commerce and the Internet is not dead. My post was essentially drawing on Jack's mentioning of DSBs. I was indicating that it was a good idea, but not properly carried out by the average Joe. I am not a business student, and therefore I will add a disclaimer to such posts in the future to avoid confusion.

I am not interested in debating why the dot.com crash occured, but I do feel that e-commerce has been less successful for some, simply because some business entities have had difficulty implementing it. Like DSBs, I am simply suggesting that the proper procedure must be followed in order for the concerned parties to achieve success in the area.

[MitchM]

Does anyone know of the specific LED that mimics moonlight? Or is it just a blue LED?

White LED with a blue lens in my case, Dave. I've got it in the new Spacelight above my main tank, and I've also got the separate moonlight from Aquamedic in my sump room.

As far as the future, I would sure like to see more research/definitive answers on coral feeding and plankton survival in our tanks.
The anectodal answers for difficult corals like goniopora need to be cleared up, as do the many questions regarding soft coral chemical warfare.

I would also like to see an end to the high tech toys and a trend towards natural, simpler, maintenance free systems.

Mitch

[Lofus]

My take on the future on the hobby, having been in it for almost a year, is as follows:

Fads - There will always be fads. I think it is human nature. Be it DSB's or LED lighting or Bionicle toys and 6" high baseboards. I always try to keep in mind that just because something is new, it is not necessarily better. Sending photos to the grandparents works just as well using an envelope and a stamp as it does with an e-mail.

New Technology - I believe that the "hard" technology (lighting, water processing equipment, controller devices) will always progress. There are too many tinkerers involved in the hobby for new inventions not to be produces. on the higher tech side lighting, controllers, and instruments, these will most definately become more commonplace. Just look at the possible controllers you can put in your house that never existed 10 years ago. Again, the Toy Factor is always present.

New Knowledge - If you think about the "Gentlemen Scientists" in the Victorian era and how rapidly (compared to the 1700s) the understanding of the world advanced regardless of thier somewhat questionable scientific method, you can only imagine where we can go now that we have almost instant access to other "Gentlemen Scientists" in our hobby.

The big thing to understand is that you cannot design or operate your systems based on tomorrow's technology. What you can do is design your system to allow change with the least amount of effort and intrusion into the lives we have in our care.

Well that's my two bits.

Jim